A judicial election has turned into a referendum on the actions of the billionaire.
To understand how the Republican Party views Elon Musk's electoral value, one can listen to the words of Brad Schimel, a conservative candidate for the Wisconsin Supreme Court. On March 29th, at an airgun shooting range event outside Kenosha, five speakers, including Schimel, spent over an hour explaining the importance of this election to the Republican Party. Musk's political action committee (PAC) has invested over $20 million in this campaign, far more than any other donor. However, his name was not mentioned once throughout the event.
Schimel spoke last and concluded his speech by criticizing the large sums of money in politics. "If we want to stop liberal billionaires from across the country pouring massive amounts of money into this election, we must prove that this approach is ineffective," he said, "Do you want people from California, Illinois, and New York to decide who gets on the Wisconsin Supreme Court?" When later asked by The Economist why no one mentioned Musk, Wisconsin Republican Party Chairman Brian Himgan replied, "Why should we?"
Theoretically, this election in Wisconsin is to select a nonpartisan judge, but no one believes it's just an ordinary judicial contest. This election has become the first electoral test of Musk and his "Department of Government Efficiency" (DOGE) in the minds of voters. On March 30th, the Tesla CEO attended an event in Green Bay, northern Wisconsin. He called the election potentially "influential to the fate of all humanity" and handed out $1 million checks to two supporters who won a lottery. Local Republicans were happy about his money but seemed less certain about Musk himself.
Schimel's opponent is Circuit Judge Susan Crawford from the state capital, Madison. The winner of this election will determine the control of the majority of the court seats, which is of great significance to Wisconsin and the entire country. The majority will affect everything from Wisconsin's 176-year-old abortion ban to the state's eight congressional district maps. This is also the reason why Musk and wealthy opponents on the left, such as George Soros and billionaire Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker, have invested funds. So far, the total expenditure on this election has exceeded $80 million, with an average cost of about $25 per registered voter, far exceeding the expenditure level of any judicial election in the United States in history.
Under normal circumstances, Judge Crawford might have had the advantage. Wisconsin is a closely divided state, with the Democrats winning more often than not in recent years, especially in non-election years. They have established an excellent mechanism for mobilizing voters in the state capital, Madison, where there are many students. In a similar majority control election two years ago, the liberal judge Janet Protasiewicz defeated a conservative judge by a landslide. In 2018, Schimel himself also failed in his re-election as attorney general.
However, Musk's involvement may change the situation. His influence is not only in the amount of money invested but also in how the money is used. His "American PAC" continued a controversial strategy from last year's presidential election, offering $100 to registered voters to sign a petition against "radical judges." The organization did not disclose the number of signatories. He initially claimed on Twitter that those who participated in the $1 million lottery had to prove they had voted. After Democrats pointed out that paying voters to vote is illegal, this tweet was quickly deleted.
Whether or not it involves bribery, Musk and the Republicans seem to hope that these funds will help them mobilize Trump supporters who would not have voted in the judicial election. The question is, will this be enough to offset the Democrats' strong opposition to Musk? Wisconsin Democratic Party Chairman Ben Wikler hopes to define the election as a "duel between the rule of law and the corruption of the world's richest man." Large-scale protests against Musk in the state seem to indicate that at least some voters hold this view.
Poll data is scarce, and the results are unpredictable. But it is clear that voter turnout has increased significantly, and high voter turnout in recent years has generally favored Republican candidates. At the Republican event in Kenosha, party spokesperson Jefferson E. Davis showed reporters the early voting data for the 2023 election, showing a significant increase in voter turnout in counties controlled by Republicans. If Schimel eventually wins, he will have to thank Musk's investment; but if he fails, it will also be attributed to Musk.