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In the physical realm, an innovator can see its lead evaporate in the face of competition from rivals with experience in production and distribution. Tesla is discovering this the hard way. Tesla’s share of the US electric vehicle market has dropped below 65 per cent from 79 per cent five years ago. S&P Global Mobility predicts it will fall below 20 per cent by 2025 as other makers bring out electric trucks and cheaper models faster than Tesla can build new factories.
“The real world is just messier. Even if you have a great car, you have to build it at a factory. You have to find land, you have to get it zoned. you have to find people. It’s not something that can be A-B tested,” says David Millstone, co-chief executive of Standard Industries, a private industrial conglomerate.
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“EV pioneer Tesla remains the market leader, with 64% of the share, down from 66% in Q2 and 75% in Q1. The declining share was inevitable as legacy automakers look to catch Tesla’s success, racing to fill the growing demand for electric vehicles.”